STRAIGHT FROM THE HORSES MOUTH

Duane A. Lienemann,

UNL Extension Educator

Webster County December 23, 2010 Edition I find it interesting what the US Census is starting to show us. It has huge ramifications on things like redistricting Congressional Districts, allowing for school aid, governmental dollars to name a few. I of course am more interested in the impact on agriculture, or should I say…..What does the Census show about agriculture? The results are in and with the US Census showing more than 308 million people, it gives you pause to think about how many people there are in the world. The current estimate of 7.5 billion is forecast to grow to nine billion by the middle of the century. That says one thing to me. They will be hungry and will need to be fed with food that very few of them can produce for themselves. Somewhere, global food production will have to increase 70% to 100% in the next 40 years. You and I may not have to worry about that, but the younger generation on today’s farm’s or agribusinesses will be involved with the care and feeding of nine billion hungry people. How are they going to do that? The number of people expected in the global community is irrelevant, but what is a serious question is how will food production double in the next 40 years, given the challenges to food production that we have today? You are trying to grow corn for livestock, fuel, and export. It is the same for soybeans, and other grains. The challenge that today’s young farmers will have revolves around water, land use, yield increases, environmental regulations, and a myriad of other significant policy issues. Where is the starting point to create a plan for feeding nine billion people 40 years from now? It speaks to me that the goal of agriculture is not just to maximize productivity, “but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes.” There is no doubt that there are and increasingly will be national and international challenges to the development of the policies that will allow food to be produced in sufficient quality and quantity. Experts suggest that we will have to double our current production to fill all of the needs that are anticipated for food, fuel, and other needs that come from agriculture production. Doubling global food output over the next 40 years will require numerous scientific and production advancements, but will also face many governmental policy shifts, and societal change. I believe we are starting to see the societal change and I know it scares a lot of us involved in agriculture and it should. This is not the same agriculture or the same farming that our grandfathers and fathers knew. Heck it isn’t the same agriculture that I started my profession in teaching just a short 40 years ago. This is a topic that has received considerable attention in Europe already. Efforts are already underway to develop a blue print for agriculture to meet this challenge in a manner that is financially viable, sustainable, and acceptable by consumers. Everything is on the table, i.e. genomics, husbandry, feeding, etc. I can’t say that I don’t necessarily agree with everything that they do in Europe, but they have been around a lot longer than us – could they be showing us the future for our own country? One thing is for certain, we now live in an ever increasing global market and we need to be aware of what is happening beyond the shores of our country. I’ll give you an example of that. The European Commission has just released a statement to encourage the voluntarily end of surgical castration of pigs in Europe by Jan. 1, 2018. From Jan. 1, 2012, castration of pigs, if carried out, shall be performed with prolonged analgesia and/or anesthesia. What do you want to bet me that we will see similar thrusts in the near future in America? Think of the ramifications for beef, sheep, hog and goat producers. This is just one of many things that could loom in the future. I will assure you that we aren’t even close to seeing what I think will eventually be a full scale affront on agriculture from animal rights, EPA, legislation and over the top regulations. Take for instance the just recently passed bill that will overhaul the nation's food-safety laws for the first time since the Great Depression. It passed both the house and senate and I doubt too many of you even knew it or the ramifications it could have on small farms and mom and pop food suppliers. Throw in antibiotics, pesticides, and particulates (dust) for further review. Let’s now look at something else that showed up in the US Census. In the past 40 years, the United States has lost 800,000 farmers and ranchers. Another thing that a lot of us already knew or suspected - farmers are aging. From 2002 to 2007, the average age of a farmer increased from age 55 to 57. And the number of farmers aged 75 years or older increased by 20 percent over the same period. In the mean time, the number of farm operators under 25 years of age decreased by 30 percent. If you look at the people who produce the bulk of our food, it’s really about 200,000 to 300,000 farmers. There are about 2.2 million farmers – less than one percent of our population. Roughly one-tenth of 1 percent of those farmers produce 85 percent of our food. That compounds the task that is ahead of us. We are put in the position of feeding all of these people in the US and in the World and with fewer acres, more regulations and a changing society and their expectations. Our challenge will be to not only feed the world but to face those changing societal expectations, much of which is fueled by opponents of agriculture and even more so - attacks on animal agriculture. We are only just beginning a fight for our very survival. With all that--- Happy New Year! The preceding information comes from the research and personal observations of the writer which may or may not reflect the views of UNL or UNL Extension. For more further information on these or other topics contact D. A. Lienemann, UNL Extension Educator for Webster County in Red Cloud, (402) 746-3417 or email to: dlienemann2@unl.edu or go to the website at: www.webster.unl.edu/home